Cycling and Statistics

As someone with a background in the social and natural sciences, I was "raised" on statistics by the academic system. If we compare academia to religion, then making claims without statistical evidence is akin to taking the Lord's name in vain. But even beyond academia, we have an inherent faith in statistics as a culture. We respect numbers and charts, and we turn to them for comfort at times of uncertainty. Consider, for instance, this beautiful bar graph:



Now, some of us may have suspected that diamond frames tend to be ridden by men, whereas step-throughs and mixtes tend to be ridden by women, but only numbers and graphs have the power to lift us from the murky waters of speculation. We can now say that, in a recent poll conducted by Lovely Bicycle, of the 221 respondents who claimed to ride mainly diamond frame bikes for transportation, 76% were male. Of the 95 respondents who claimed to ride mainly step-through bikes for transportation, 80% were female. And of the 39 respondents who claimed to ride mainly mixte bikes for transportation, 66% were female. This numerical evidence we can wield like a mighty weapon the next time someone contradicts these tendencies.



Of course the one little problem with Statistics, is that it's mostly BS. In the words of comedian Vic Reeves, "88.2% of Statistics are made up on the spot" - which may very well be the case. But numbers need not be maliciously forged in order to misrepresent reality. There are multitudes of ways in which a study can be flawed or biased from the start, set up so as to elicit particular responses. Often this is done unintentionally, or at least unconsciously, by researchers eager to find evidence for their pet theories. Other scenarios can include how data is processed, or even how the final results are presented. Statistics are highly prone to human error and bias, which means that they are inherently subjective. This, combined with the fact that we respect them so much, makes our statistics-loving culture susceptible to misinformation.



[image via NHTSA]

The idea of statistics and misinformation brings me to what I really wanted to talk about here, and this is something I've been trying to make sense of for a while. I am puzzled by the use of safety statistics in bicycle advocacy, and I am hoping that someone could explain them to me. For example, many bicycle advocacy talks and internet presentations stress that it is safer to ride a bike than it is to travel in a car. In support of this, they use statistics such as this data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), according to which there were about 30,000 motor vehicle traffic fatalities, and about 600 bicycle fatalities in the USA in . These numbers are used by cycling advocates to point out how much safer it is to cycle than to drive. But unless I am missing something, the figures mean just the opposite.



Yes, the NHTSA numbers suggest that in there were 50 times more motor vehicle fatalities than there were bicycle fatalities in the US. But those numbers mean nothing until they are weighed against how many cars vs bicycles there are on the roads at large. If there were 50 times more cars on the road than bicycles, than the risks of fatal traffic accident would be equal for each mode of transportation. But I believe that in actuality, there are more like 1,000 more cars on the roads than bicycles... which means that the number of cycling fatalities is disproportionately high.



Obviously, I am not trying to prove that cycling is unsafe. ButI do want to understand the reality of the situation. After all, if cycling advocates use statistics incorrectly, they open themselves up to some very harsh critique from unfriendly forces. Where could one go to obtain accurate statistics about the number of cars vs bicycles on the roads, and the number of traffic accidents for each?

The Great Climb

The mighty Sron Ulladale, Isle of HarrisIt’s great to be able to talk about this now…Nearly three years ago, the BBC attempted to run the ambitious live ‘Great Climb’ live broadcast on Cairngorm, with myself and a team of climbers from all over the world. We planned, rigged and trained for the big day. And then it rained. The washout was a huge disappointment, partially avenged by my ascent of my project on Hell’s Lum cliff a few days later which became the film ‘To Hell and Back’.Ever since, Triple Echo Productions who were behind the Great Climb project have been planning to make another attempt at a big live climbing event for the BBC. This year, the necessary components have aligned and we have a plan:

On 28th August, myself and Tim Emmett are planning to attempt a hard new route on Sron Ulladale, the biggest overhanging piece of rock in the UK (700 feet high, overhanging it’s base by 150 feet or so). As you might imagine, the prospect of this brings feelings of massive excitement, together with a fair dose of intimidation, pressure and anticipation. The correct ingredients for a fine adventure.





Harris landscapeI’d love to tell you exactly which part of the mighty Sron we will try to climb, but last week on our recce, close inspection of the cliff was out of the question due to the golden eagles, nesting on the main part of the face once again. If the eagles hatch chicks (best of luck to them!) we won’t be able to look closely at the lines until August. So until then, it’s training and waiting. Naturally, our plan is to climb the hardest possible route that imagination and finger strength allows.





Colin Wells standing at the foot of Sron Ulladale. The rock in shot above him is roughly the first fifth of the cliff height (!).However, we have something else up our sleeves for the meantime. We’ll be doing another challenge to feature in the 6 hour live broadcast. We’ll try a triple five challenge of five new climbs on five hebridean islands in five days. Last week Donald took us around many a far flung corner of the Western Isles, showing us many a gobsmacking unclimbed cliff, geo or stack. After serial protracted deliberations in Hotel Hebrides we shortlisted the many amazing cliffs into five objectives, which we will travel between by boat, sleeping below deck, in camps or under boulders.





I’ll have a lot more to say about this as more plans emerge in the coming weeks. Right now I have to go back to training for it. More on the BBC site here.

Cocoa Beach and Good Friends

I had the chance not once, but twice this past week to share with family members of ours how great of friends we have made since living this lifestyle. I was so fanatical in my sharing with one of them that I think I may have scared them a bit. It's hard not to be really passionate when trying to explain how special of a crowd we have been lucky enough to hang out with the past few years though.



We have said time and time again what exceptional people the pickleball crowd in particular are. This past week was a great example of that. Rich and Donna invited us to their beach condo. I can honestly say we have never had friends invite us along on their vacation to stay in their condo with them, let alone a beach one! I am so grateful to them!



We had to squeeze this trip in around my work schedule so we only had a few days to visit, but we made those days as fun filled as possible. We were also spoiled rotten by Rich and Donna who definitely have the gift of being great hosts. I do not have this gift, so I will have to bake extra goodies when they come to stay with us to make up for it! First thing we got to tour the facilities at the place where there condo is at, and we were very impressed with it.



We then headed out to do a bit of sight seeing. We have never actually visited Cocoa Beach so it was neat to visit some place new in Florida. There was the typical touristy Florida beach stuff of course, but they took us to some non-touristy unique spots. We stopped at Manatee park where they have been able to see manatees and dolphins in their previous visits. Sadly, we did not encounter any wildlife but the park was really pretty so we still enjoyed the stop.



We then visited the pier there, which Donna already wrote about so I'll just send you to her blog Florida Picklers. The first thing I saw there was this cool 3-D mural on the side of this building.



We stopped to catch a few waves, with the ladies trying out the surfboard first.







Then on to the pier, where we visited a shop and I found a pair of flip flop earrings that I loved (and bought).



We saw some fishing being done, birds flying around, lots of beach activity and real surfing in the water.



I thought the pier itself was really neat.



Donna had a great idea for a group shot, taking a picture of our reflections in the water. Love this!



We also managed to squeeze in dinner at an Italian restaurant they have eaten at before. Nathan was able to try one of their small stombolis. Yes, folks, that is their small size! The food there was very good!



After all of that, we still were not done with our day. We took our drinks outside and lounged by the pool and chatted for a bit. Once we digested enough of our dinner we headed over to the tennis courts and chalked off lines for some pickleball. It was very windy and we had fun even with the frustration of not knowing at all where they ball would go after we hit it. I didn't realize until the next day how hard I had really played because the wind really kept me cooled off. After so much fun, we headed to bed for the night gearing up for another fun day the next day.

Wild Locast Tree

It was very dry in the mountains so I was surprised to see so many wild flowers blooming. The wild locast trees were beautiful with pale pink to a light purple in color blossoms. There were wild roses, iris, and lupines as well as many others that I couldn't name and were so tiny I couldn't get a decent photo of.

Holley, NY to Lebanon, PA and Low Bridges

Today we left New York and started our journey back south. We landed in Lebanon, PA and are staying at the Thousand Trails there.



Since we just left the Erie Canal, Low Bridge Everybody Down has been a line from a song we've been singing. It also translates into our lives so often when we are traveling. Today we had to turn around in someone's driveway when we met up with a low bridge. Only to come in contact with another within minutes.



I've had people ask us, what do you do when you get to a low bridge? So I decided to document it to show you. This is what happens when you are not sure if you'll make it. You get out and watch to see if you'll make it or not. In this case Austin goes to the front of the truck and I'm sort of in the back, meaning I'm taking pictures while watching the back.



We were good, except for the heat pump unit which was a little too close for my comfort. We made it through though and were good to go. Oddly enough, this is normal for us to stop and get out of the truck and do this. I'm sure others don't quite see it that way though!

A Bee or What?

My blue knight spiria is blooming heavy and the bees and butterflies love it. I am not sure if this is a bee or a wasp but it sure had pretty blue wings.

Happy Hour for Austin and Charlotte's Birthday

Dianne graciously hosted a Happy Hour for Austin and Charlotte's birthday. I was going to try to do a surprise party for him at the tournament we were going to. Dianne asked him if his Mom was doing anything for his birthday and he said no...so she offered to do the party. I filled her in on the surprise party plan and she was going to help me out with that. Then he asked her about the Happy Hour, so at the last minute she pulled of this one. Thank goodness she is great at these and just rolled with it. Thanks, Dianne!



I had my camera on the wrong setting so the pictures are awful. I am glad I have these at least though so we can remember our time there tonight!



And here is my Project 365 picture for today-the lovely Charlotte:

Winter Starts without the Car

Sometime in December, the car which I don't myself drive but share with the Co-Habitant, announced to us that it needs some work. It's not a big problem, but it's quirky. Unable to agree on how to go about getting it resolved, our solution was to put off the decision until we have more time and can think clearly. In the meanwhile, we have been automobile-free for about three weeks - just in time for the snow!



As far as everyday necessities go, we have felt no adverse effects so far from the lack of car. The Co-Habitant typically cycles to work anyhow, and I always cycle to my meetings and errands. We can (though normally don't always) go grocery shopping by bike. And other crucial destinations - post office, bank, hardware store, art supply store, etc. - are within manageable distance as well. When the streets were un-cyclable during the blizzard, we worked from home andwalked to the grocery store. If anything, not having a car feels liberating in this respect.



The problematic aspects surface when it comes to long-distance trips. For instance, our photo studio is 14 miles away. It is accessible via the subway system, but the T stop is a considerable walk from our house. That is okay, except that sometimes we transport huge and fragile objects to and from the studio - and that cannot really be done properly other than in our car. We also travel to remote places for photoshoots - and those trips will be suspended until the car is available again. There are other things, like not being able to go to specific supply stores that are in bicycle-unfriendly locations, as well as trips that involve large and heavy cargo. So far we have dealt with these things by either finding alternative (but not ideal) solutions, or postponing them. And while so far that's been fine, I wonder how we will feel about it after several more weeks pass.



At the heart of my transportation preferences is a need to feel independent, and most of the time cycling fulfills this need for me better than other options. But sometimes the car is the appropriate tool for the job, and I have nothing but respect for the automobile in that context. I am hoping this carless period will clarify for us, what it is that we actually need from the car given our current lifestyle.

Traversing the Trail Ridge Road

On my “speedy” drive back to Indiana from Salt Lake City (1600 miles in 4 days) I chose to go through Rocky Mountain National Park. I knew I wouldn't have any time to spend there but also knew that it would be a nice drive!



Trail Ridge Road, the road through Rocky Mountain National Park, opened on June 7th, just three days before I arrived. The highest continuous paved highway in the United States, connecting the towns of Estes Park on the east side and Grand Lake on the west, it reaches an elevation of 12,183 feet and affords some spectacular views.





This winter, Mother Nature, dumped a lot of snow on the area. More than she has in 30 years. The amount of snow that the snowplow operators faced when they began clearing the road in April along with a big snow storm the last week of May, which produced 17 foot drifts in some areas, delayed the opening of the road. It is usually open by Memorial Day weekend.



I was fortunate that it was open by the time I went through. I was also fortunate that it was a most beautiful day!









A big snow blower at the Alpine Visitor Center.





This fellow was about 15 feet off the road.



If you look closely, you can see guardrails along the road on the right-center side of the picture. This is looking back from the Rock Cut parking area.

She was the chief cook, I was the dish washer.

About 1958, probably influenced somewhat by her brother, William Hale Brubaker, and her uncle, Maurice James Wise, who both owned restaurants, my grandmother became manager of Miller's Ice Cream Store located at Five Points on Goshen Road in Fort Wayne. A few years later she moved to North Webster and opened "The Dairy Bar" which provided jobs for several family members, myself included.

My grandmother in the kitchen of the Dairy Bar.
Caption written by grandma for the picture below.
A small horseshoe shaped bar surrounded by 10 stools was positioned just outside the door to the kitchen, far right. It was the most popular spot in the Dairy Bar. Shown above were customers Helen Ravely and her daughter Jane, then Grandma and my mother, I'm not sure who the girl next to mom is, could be Wanda Wysong, but the one on the right is Beverly Penrod.

Grandma opened the restaurant every morning at 5 a.m. in the summer and 6 o'clock in the winter. While breakfast was being served she made the pies (some of the best!) and preparations were underway for the daily lunch special. Swiss steak, fried chicken, liver and onions, beef heart, ham and beans - just a few of her specialties. Sunday was the really busy day with the after-church crowd starting about 11 a.m. and continuing through until about 2 o'clock.

Closing time during the winter was 9 p.m. while in the summer the restaurant stayed open until 11 o'clock. It usually took another hour to get the place cleaned before we could go home. I did not enjoy working the late shift, or the morning shift for that matter! For the first few years (before I legally became old enough to work) I cleared tables and washed dishes, eventually moving up to waitress and finally grill cook. I peeled a lot of potatoes and did prep work, but grandma and mom were the ones that cooked up the daily specials. It was by no means an easy job.

Notice the prices for breakfast items:

Ham or Bacon & Eggs, toast, coffee 75¢
2 Eggs, toast, coffee 40¢
a glass of fruit juice was 15¢

Contributed to the "they worked hard for the family" edition of Smile for the Camera.

Just A Hint of Fall Colors

The first day we arrived here, we saw one tree that had red leaves. Just in the few days since, we've seen so many more change color. It is still just in the beginning stages, but if feels like Fall to us now. I love it!

Wisps of Light

Well, I've been suffering "Aurora withdrawals" since our last two opportunities for Northern lights viewing in Northern Minnesota were cancelled due to heavy cloud cover. As a way of getting my "fix", I went back to some photos from the night of March 10, and found a couple that I had not yet worked on. The photo you see here is one such photo. This was captured near the tail end of what I still consider to be the BEST Aurora display that I have ever seen.

Why I'm busy

My soap's in the Father's Day gift guide.

Of the June issue of Better Homes and Gardens magazine!



Holy cow. I'm hoping that business will be good, but not so good that I can't handle it. It's coming out this week... wish me luck!

Wordless Wednesday :: Schooldaze ~ Tenth Grade

Lions, Tigers & Bears Animal Sanctuary Tour

We have been so fortunate to visit many animal refuges since we began our full time journey. What we did not know until recently is how many are located right near where we are this winter. Today we visited one that was another short drive from the campground. Like the Great Ape sanctuary, this one was very hidden and is not open to the public. You can only come with a group for a scheduled tour.



We had a group of ten or so people that headed out first thing this morning and visited this neat place.



The refuge is named Lions, Tigers & Bears and we saw all three of those animals in this beautiful country setting.



There were many other interesting animals living here also.





We did a tour with one of the dedicated owners and she shared many neat facts about the animals as a breed and their individual stories. One of the things I love about these tours is seeing the animals interact with the people who dedicate their lives to the cause of saving animals.





It is clear they know them well and it is also clear they know where their food source is.





I think we all enjoyed this tour, and some of us were really entertained by the animals.



Or maybe it was some of us were really entertaining to the animals.



Or maybe it was both! Either way, we enjoyed our time here and stopped and had lunch at the Pioneer Restaurant on the way home. I will try to share more pictures of the animals over the next few days.




Living the life in animal loving Florida!